San Mateo Daily Journal
October 30, 2020
Watching the World Series last night, was a quick study on how data analytics has impacted the game of baseball. Let’s start with the Dodgers coming to bat in the bottom of the sixth inning trailing 1-0.
Blake Snell, Ray’s ace had been brilliant to this point – mixing his wide repertoire of pitches (fastball, slider, change-up, and curveball) – and keeping the Dodgers off balance and stifled. A quick pop out to centerfield by the leadoff hitter A.J. Pollock on Snell’s 70th pitch of the evening and his line looked like this -– 1 hit, no runs, no walks, and 9 strikeouts.
Then the number nine hitter in the line-up, Austin Barnes steps to the plate. On a 1-1 count, Barnes hits a loft liner to center for a single for the Dodgers first hit since a leadoff single by Chris Taylor in the bottom of the 3rd inning. Kevin Cash emerges from the Ray’s dugout, goes to the mound and asks for the ball from Snell. Snell is visibly angry and mouths a couple expletives – and then reluctantly hands the ball to his manager.
On Fox TV – Joe Buck said Cash has said “these guys (Ray’s pitchers) need short memories and thick skin because this is how we do it.” But Cash’s move to his bullpen to replace Snell is where the analytics and feel for the game of baseball went too far.
Snell, at this point in the game, had thrown 73 pitches. The upcoming batters (Mookie Betts, Cory Seager, and Justin Turner –1,2,3 in the lineup) were collectively zero for 6 – all strikeouts. The Dodgers had been baffled all night and the single from Barnes was not hit hard.
Enter Nick Anderson who was brilliant during the season (16.1 IP, 26 strikeouts, 6 saves and a 0.55 ERA) but during the post season he had surrendered 8 earned run and only 9 strikeouts and 4 walks in 14 1/3 innings
Cash stuck to his script of using the weapons in the bullpen that has enabled the Rays to win numerous one run games during the season to go 40-20 in route to first place in the AL East.
Back to Fox — Hall of Famer John Smoltz said – “you had a rhythm pitcher in rhythm in Snell and there was nothing to change that unless you take him out and bring in another pitcher that has the same rhythm and obviously this was not the case with Anderson” based on his previous statistics. These comments immediately before Mookie Betts hits a 2-0 fastball from Anderson for a line drive double into the left field corner sending Barnes to 3rd base.
Analytics won out over intuition and it cost the Rays a chance to go to Game 7. Charlie Morton who was proved and tested in previous Game 7s would have been the starterand a worthy opponent of the Dodger’s ace Walter Buehler, Kevin Cash sided with the analytics and it backfired.
Kevin Cash has gotten a lot of accolades for his managing of the Rays. His players unanimously say he is a “player’s manager”, can relate to his players, and makes in-game decisions that they accept and can respect.
Playing the analytics game was the only reason to take out Blake Snell last night – and it cost them a chance to go to Game 7.
The Rays have a great team and will most likely return to the playoffs but they missed a great chance to go to Game 7 and win their first World Series.
The biggest loss here was for baseball fans especially those that see the game as more than “the numbers don’t lie” or “eyeballs lie, numbers don’t” philosophies. The Dodgers and Rays both embrace this “new school” approach to managing a major league team.
If Kevin Cash had kept Snell in the game, it could have been a huge victory for baseball.